From a reason or another bookies underestimate Georgia,and overrate Lithuania on the other hand,so we should really have a punt on hosts today.It's only -0.5 I know but I'm wondering why isn't -0.75 which would be more close to the real chances in my view.Why's that?

It's mainly because I think Georgia are a much better side at the moment,and are very strong on their ground either.They've lost to France and Italy there,but on the other side they've managed to snatch a point against an extra-motivated Ukraine,and beat Scotland who were desperate to win that match.And you can't say the win was a lucky win,I had watched the game and from what I'd seen they had really deserved it playing ABOVE their opponents.They do play for nothing,but as far as Eastern European teams are concerned,this factor has no relevance as they got to improve their position in the UEFA rankings,not to mention that the fans would spur them to get the victory anyway.The squad will be a mixture of old-timers and juniors.I supposed you remember the panic before the Georgia-Scotland match as the Gorgians were expected to miss several key players,and you all know the final result.It's more than obvious that people exaggerate things,and that Georgia can cope and without some of the regulars as they got a couple of talented young faces there that can match their usual power.

Lithuania have been poor during the Qualifications generally,but away from home they perform even worse.They got a win on Saturday against Ukraine but they were playing for nothing really and should have been disillusioned after missing the second spot,hence the low spirits.That's why Lithuania looked better than they usually are,and created some danger from which they scored the two goals securing the win.Away against mighty at home Georgia is going to be different,and frankly speaking and I don't see how they could get something today.

Pick Georgia(-0.75) at 2.39 with Pinnacle,stake 8

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