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Since we have a problem, and we really have one according to some rude comments from my picks (I will only talk about me in this article), then I feel the need to reply somehow and explain the
situation.
Dear punters, I would like you all to understand firsly what betting is all about. If you think you can make a living and fly to Mars and back so easily, then you're very wrong. Betting is a
complicated ground, especially when the major leagues I follow are concerned. Statisctially, you can have GREAT value in your picks, and get really valuable odds, and still have a crappy month.
It's mathematical. What are the chances for a coin to appear 20 times in a row head? Slim, very slim. Yet it happens. Same with football. Even if you pick vaulable odds you still don't have any
guarantee you can make profit month by month, it's impossible, and if you say you know such people you lie. And you know you do. Even the best punter in the world would always tend to have
his ups and downs, of course it's not the most pleasant thing and we would like to avoid it but it doesn't stand in our power. The advantage of picking valuable odds is that you
can be SURE you'll make profit on the LONG term, not short. Thus, I can honestly declare I can be and stay above 110%, and the best prove for you all stands here.
Talking about the current month. It's not the best month in my life, but it's not so tragical either as you seem to claim. Why don't you pay attention to the fact I've been much above 110%
previously (in the last 2 months)? Now if I have a slop, is it really needed to come with such comments? The month hasn't finished yet, and I'm crucified already.
The idea is: If you have a healthy money management, you can't lose. But, if you stake 10% of your bank on one tip, then I think you have a problem, and no tipster in the world would ever make
you money. Sooner or later, the mathematical law of probability shall hit you.
Somebody was asking if I've changed something in my picking system. And the answer is NO, absolutely not. I'm still watching the teams, and do the same what I've been doing when I was
winning. The reason of the poor results stands only in the luck/unluck factor, and it's a very common factor when the football is concerned. Those who watch football will understand what
I'm talking about. And I've had such perios a lot of times so far, and every time it ends up with me on the green side, as it's mathematically impossible to be struglling on the long run if you
got the value.
Sincerely,
Ted
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1. Written by Teddie21, on 23-03-2008 11:50
Interetsing issue, I'll reply soon, need to post my picks firstly.
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2. Some Notes
Written by ProPunter, on 23-03-2008 10:49
Hi all users of Brainbetting!
Happened to run to this site and this thread and just want to share some thoughts.
First of all its stupid to bash tipster for a bad run, thats for sure. So in that matter I agree with Teddie and his supporters and this thread shouldnt really even excist. BUT ...
... Many Teddie`s comments and sentences show that he has no clue what is proffessional betting. Few examples:
Teddie says: "The reason why I didn't make profit so far in this league is because I didn't follow it so closely like other leagues, so I didn't even have many bets in this league up until now (maybe 15 Romanian picks in 2 years). However, I strongly think it's a good league to bet on if you follow it, and since it's my native league I think I can do it."
How can anyone who bets proffesionally say that he has made bets without following the league closely. Even if those bets are numbered to 15. What were those bets? Funbets? With your customers money?
Teddie also says: "We can't talk about any chasing, it's a simple coincidence that I had some many bets of late, I never was and never be the type who bets just for the sake of having a bet today, ot just for having some fun. Beleive me, after so many years spent on all kind of tipping sites, do you think I'd tarnsih my name with such amateurish behavior? I'd be a fool if I would."
Reality is that Pro punters limit their bets when they are on bad run and this what Teddie calls "coincidence" can never happen. Reason is simple. Pro punters understand that while having a bad run their estimation of what is valuable and what is not is not as accurate as it should be (due to that bad run) so they first get out of slump with limited bets and then if they feel like it raise a number of their bets. So yes, Teddie, you are either fool like you suggested, chasing or unproffesional.
with regards,
ProPunter
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3. Written by LOOL, on 22-03-2008 10:08
1. cool down
Written by virtuoso09This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it , on 21-03-2008 20:29
And one thing more when someone says that he can profit on long term he doesnt think on a month or two he thinks on a whole year.
 Or maybe not this millenium 
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4. cool down
Written by
This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
, on 21-03-2008 19:29
I really do not know what are you doing.You are attacking Teddie21 without a reason,he only had a bad streak,when he made profit you didnt attacked him or did you?And one thing more when someone says that he can profit on long term he doesnt think on a month or two he thinks on a whole year.
GL TED
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5. Written by borko, on 21-03-2008 08:48
Thank you for answers.
Good luck with your next picks.
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6. Written by Teddie21, on 20-03-2008 23:39
Hi Borko,
Firstly, thanks for questions like these, you have all the rights in the world to ask, and I'd be a mug not to answer, especially that we aim a paid service. So here we go:
Quote:
your all stakes are 8 units.
What percent is it (8 units) of your bank?
I'm gonna be honest. 8 units is around 2% from my bank, sometimes can be a bit more, sometimes it can be a bit less, it all depends on how the size of the bank varies. But, I would strongly recommend not more than 1%/bet for BIG banks, or for banks you can't afford to lose. And of course it's your hit rate that plays its role, I mean, if you bet on horses obviosly you won't stake 2-3% that would be suicidal, for football (odde above 2.00 = probability >50%) should be ok.
Quote:
What does mean for you when you lost 22 units?
How many units you can lost in row(in other word, how many lost units you would survive)?
When I lose 22 units I lose like up to 6%% of bank. If you do the same you should easily get trhough these ups and downs not being worried a bit about today's or this week's results, as if you're sure you have an edge the period will be followed by a good moment, when you'll bounce back as the saying goes.
Quote:
Do you realize your mistake, wrong pick=followers lost money ?
I know, you had good, excellent picks before it. Therefore I follow you. But last days, weeks picks seems like rouletta, seems like revenge bet.
We can't talk about any chasing, it's a simple coincidence that I had some many bets of late, I never was and never be the type who bets just for the sake of having a bet today, ot just for having some fun. Beleive me, after so many years spent on all kind of tipping sites, do you think I'd tarnsih my name with such amateurish behavior? I'd be a fool if I would.
When I take a bet, I TAKE it. NO chasing, NO revenge. And I'm strong enough mentally to withstand to all kind of temptations. I know what roulette is on my own, and never thought to apply my old roulette strategies (which are shit btw) on betting.
Quote:
Do you play yourself your latest picks with real money? Or do you just public for followers?
You know, sometimes I don't even take a bet myself if I don't post it online, just from fair that I am. When we win, we're all happy, when you lose, I share your feeling cause I lost too.
Quote:
Nothing in bad, just I don't understand what's happen with your picks. I don't expect You and we win every single day. But OTOH, I didn't expect so many lost picks in row.
I'm like -40 units this month, that's TERRIBLE in my eyes, AWFUL handicapping, especially that I have high expectations, and recently don't even sleep during the night having my thoughts at the weekend.
Will things improve? Knowing me from my past experiences I can say yes, and it's going to happen soon, but should I promiss that? I don't know, I'm sure there'll be people who'll heavily react on my first pick lost from now on, and I wouldn't like to against any lay of probability either. What I can promiss is: do my homework, try even harder (it's called added-motivation), and make profit on the long term, not short, even though I'm always doing my best to stay steady, that's one of the biggest qualities of a punter.
See you on Saturday guys
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7. MM
Written by borko, on 20-03-2008 22:52
Hi, ted.
your all stakes are 8 units.
What percent is it (8 units) of your bank?
What does mean for you when you lost 22 units?
How many units you can lost in row(in other word, how many lost units you would survive)?
For example 8 units is 3,3% (1/30) of my bank.
Do you realize your mistake, wrong pick=followers lost money ?
I know, you had good, excellent picks before it. Therefore I follow you. But last days, weeks picks seems like rouletta, seems like revenge bet.
Do you play yourself your latest picks with real money? Or do you just public for followers?
Thanx for answer.
Nothing in bad, just I don't understand what's happen with your picks. I don't expect You and we win every single day. But OTOH, I didn't expect so many lost picks in row.
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8. Written by Teddie21, on 20-03-2008 17:03
"Understand something right now: I am not going to win every game. But, I can put you on the right side of more games that you've ever been on in your gambling life, and by doing that, you will make money." by Brandon Lang. I think we should all learn something from this.
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9. Written by Teddie21, on 20-03-2008 16:48
ArrididerLA 
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10. Written by JaSoNLiVeS, on 20-03-2008 16:45
Ok, I got pretty pissed off when you deleted my comment and I still don't know why, I even don't think I pulled the trigger too much because after my second comment you already said I will be banned..but it's your website and you make the rules..
I don't think at all that you are a bad capper, I simply don't like this "Disclaimer",when you decide to go paid you have to take in account that you will receive much much more shit than what you are receiving in these days when you hit a bad streak..the speech you wrote here it seems to me very much "BrandonLang-style" (if you know him you will understand)..
anyway goodluck
Arrivederci 
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11. Written by Teddie21, on 20-03-2008 16:22
Jason,
You've been banned because you pulled the trigger WAY too much (read the rules from the bottom), and because my old blog has no relevance, whilst some people might take it seriously.
You've been warned not to do it, yet you continued.
I have nothing against you, should you think my picks are bad you only have to skip BB from your favourites, simple as that. That doesn't mean you can come here every day and talk nonsense. As long as you do respect the above points you're free to do anything.
Ciao
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12. Written by JaSoNLiVeS, on 20-03-2008 16:12
Ok teddie21 ban me as much as you want, no problem for me..I just would like to know where I have been offensive or what did I do wrong..you wanted to show past results and I thought it would be nice showing all your past results..
If you want to run a business in this way it'ok but maybe not everyone else of your mates agrees with you...
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13. Written by Teddie21, on 20-03-2008 15:58
I was -14.2 units yesterday indeed, sorry for missunderstanding, but it was actually the first time when I lost so much in one day for months, so I guess it had to happen.
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14. Written by Teddie21, on 20-03-2008 15:41
Just one notice: Yesterday I was down 10 units, not 15
As for today, it hasn't finshed yet, it can still end up with great profit.
Regards
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15. Written by frank, on 20-03-2008 15:34
Thanks for your reply teddie.
but 25 units lose is off the mark abit dont you think? 17 units since was last recorded. Plus the 15 you lost yesterday and the 8 today =23units +17 = 40! Nearly last months profits gone!
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16. Written by Teddie21, on 20-03-2008 15:30
No Frankie you don't seem to understand:
1.I'm not posting all my picks on AH because soon I'm not going to post at all, hence the reason (but did in the past)
2. Even with the current month my stats from my blog would still be 107%, I'm down 25 units at the most this month, and I was very close to 108% before quiting with my blog, it's just their system that you have to be above 108% to show 108%, I mean you can be 107.99% and it would still display 107%. So even with the current month included I would still be 107%, but don't forget one thing, my results from my blog were heavily affected by past, as presently it's a lot different, and the last months show this.
Regards
PS: Nobody enforces anyone to pay for picks, it's optional
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17. Written by frank, on 20-03-2008 15:24
im sorry ted, i respect you and everything, but you keep pointing to AH, but not all your picks even get posted there, it's not accurate view! That blog with 107% is more true reflection. Your obviously just trying to highlight the positive side of course for your own good...which of course is fair enough, but even that blog with all this months picks will probably be sitting at 105% or lower and thats after more picks...i hope you prove me wrong, but i just dont see why i would want to pay for your picks....
Gl anyways,
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18. Written by Teddie21, on 20-03-2008 15:19
Not here, but do a lot better on AH, need more time to improve things here.
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19. Written by frank, on 20-03-2008 15:15
i dont think your close to 107% roi after this months picks!
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20. Written by Teddie21, on 20-03-2008 15:10
And as you mentioned my second blog, note that it's still been affected by my mistakes in the past, but the recent months have proved I changed COMPLETELY my mind, and now my picking system is much different. Thus I can do a lot better than 107%, especially when AH market is concerned.
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21. Written by Teddie21, on 20-03-2008 15:08
JaSoNLiVeS you'll get a ban soon
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22. Written by Teddie21, on 20-03-2008 15:07
Sorry but I had to delete your post, some people might take it seriously.
That blog was created when I didn't even know what betting is, when I was still having ALL by bets based on stats. I wasn't even betting for real. Actually, the bad experience has positively changed my life, and now I'm proud to have changed, and learnt with all the shades involved how betting should be eat.
How do you explain otherwise my results from AH? Lucky?
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23. Written by ctr999, on 20-03-2008 15:01
jason, i dont believe that 1st blog is a proper one. Having said that, the new one (http://nistelrooy.blogabet.com/) shows a roi of 107% but without this months losing picks and with a longer span of nearly 700 picks! Hence why i say i don't believe in this AH website!
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24. Written by Magnum, on 20-03-2008 14:21
Hey i posted a comment yesterday and it was deleted due to some offensive words. i'm sorry for that i somewhat lost my temper but i meat to say is that Ted just posts picks he thinks are going to win and sometimes he's hit by a bad run. anyway he's not to blame and the final decision is that of the punter who chooses whether to put money on it or not. so stop criticizing the guy and grow up because when he was winning 2 months we didn't hear from you. Good luck Ted.
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25. Written by Teddie21, on 20-03-2008 12:53
Toctr999:
Quote:
Ted, this has been said time and time again, are those stats on asian handicapper correct?? the unders/overs are missing but the fact it still shows that your in profit for this month? How can that work out?
The difference in stats is because I don't bet on under/over there, and because I didn't post all my picks there, and it happened for the picks posted there to win, and those posted on BB lose. AH is a reliable brand, it's the same owner who runs bethelp.com We can't even question his reputation. The reason why I'm insisting with my stats from AH is to get more credibility, and show you on the other hand that yes I can make you momney.
Quote:
also, just worth mentioning, but have you EVER made a profit from romania league??
No as a matter of fact no. I'm honest. The reason why I didn't make profit so far in this league is because I didn't follow it so closely like other leagues, so I didn't even have many bets in this league up until now (maybe 15 Romanian picks in 2 years). However, I strongly think it's a good league to bet on if you follow it, and since it's my native league I think I can do it.
Quote:
Aswell, do you not think that your betting abit to much?? With NINE picks last night?? Are you chasing loses??
NO aboslutely not. I'm not chasing anything, I can have 7 bets in Serie A this round, and don't have any the next. The price is the decisive factor for me when deciding whether I get involved or not.
Quote:
Im just trying to see where you are going wrong, as clearly the two months before this were excellent!
It will be excellent Just have some patience, and you'll get things working again.
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26. Written by ctr999, on 20-03-2008 12:44
Im sorry teddie, but looking at the results from your recent activity at AH, it seems your missing almost ALL your picks, last night you just had Chelsea game which was your only winner!!!!!
i cant make any use of that site, it misses way to many of your picks, you wouldnt be anywhere near 110% if all your picks were there!!
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27. Written by Komentarists, on 20-03-2008 12:40
I think the simple truth is that Ted is just no good enough. Simple as that. I like his write-ups though, you can see that he's doing his homework, but selections.. And these references to luck in the disclaimer are just childish - as one respectable punter put it "luck is what you call when others act more sensible than you". No wonder you're offering your services in the package. Just my two cents...
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28. Written by ctr999, on 20-03-2008 12:21
also, just worth mentioning, but have you EVER made a profit from romania league??
Aswell, do you not think that your betting abit to much?? With NINE picks last night?? Are you chasing loses??
Im just trying to see where you are going wrong, as clearly the two months before this were excellent!
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29. Written by ctr999, on 20-03-2008 12:19
Ted, this has been said time and time again, are those stats on asian handicapper correct?? the unders/overs are missing but the fact it still shows that your in profit for this month? How can that work out?
Again, not starting anything here, just pointing out, how accurate is that record?
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30. Written by Teddie21, on 20-03-2008 12:12
Perfect post, and of course, if you don't have an egde you can't win no matter how good your money management system would be (if you noticed I do flat stakes, that means I'm not helped or affected by MM, I only need value, simple as that). What I meant though, is that even if you have the edge, you still can lose due to a poor MM, and believe it or not but there are many people who seem to have this problem.
Thanks a lot for the kind feedback.
As for the confidence, don't worry, that's the last thing I can lose, I'm looking forward to this new 2008 betting year.
Ted
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31. Written by F, on 20-03-2008 12:01
I'm a newbie to this website, but I know one thing: Ultimately I make the decision to bet, so I am the only person to blame if I lose money.
So Ted, don't listen to all the critics....
Bad spells happen to EVERYONE (even the best tipster in the universe)
One remark about your article, you write:
"The idea is: If you have a healthy money management, you can't lose"
And that's wrong!
A lot of people believe that by good banking management you can turn a losing system into a profitable one: wrong!
It is mathematically proven that if you don't have the edge over the bookies, you will lose money on the long run (however well you manage your bank)
DON'T LOSE YOU CONFIDENCE!
There will always be people ready to criticise.
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32. Written by Teddie21, on 20-03-2008 11:58
Just one note, I'm not ranting ok? It was a simple disclaimer in order to explain people why things happen like this.
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33. Written by abc, on 20-03-2008 11:55
"I strongly suggest you get down to Earth for a moment." is the part I was referring to with the "grow up" comment. As for the rest of your rant, I'm not sure what you're on about really. I didn't in any way suggest why you may be taking the bets you do.
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34. Written by ABC Tips, on 20-03-2008 11:44
abc, where`s your tipping website, I need to buy a new car and a house asap.  
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35. Written by Teddie21, on 20-03-2008 11:41
I don't get where the problem is? All I did was to explain the situation and reveal my point of view. That doesn't mean I can't be criticized, be my guest if that's what you want..
As for getting back, yes I want to get back, but if you suggest somehow that I'm taking bets just for the sake of getting back then I'll have to disagree as that's not even close, I never do that no matter how many units I'm down. On the contrary, I always tend to win after a bad run, and expect the streak to continue.
Growing up? What this has to do at all?
Respect your opinion, but don't agree.
Regards
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36. Written by abc, on 20-03-2008 11:26
It's one thing not bein able to handle perverse criticism, it's another not being able to take a constructive comment. I suggest you're in desperate need of getting back down superman... and in need of a little growing up too.
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37. Written by Teddie21, on 20-03-2008 11:16
Dear abc,
It has nothing to do with yesterday's day, but rather with all my shity month as a whole, and I can name dozens of matches when my teams got red cards, conceded stupid goals, missed chances, bad referee decision etc etc. I strongly suggest you get down to Earth for a moment.
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38. Written by abc, on 20-03-2008 11:10
The only problem with your explanation is the assumption that you somehow magically get everything right and the only thing that ever goes wrong is luck. That's simply not an honest assesment. The only luck involved yesterday was Reggina not getting thrashed (somehow!) and Spurs scoring a magical late goal through Robbie Keane when they had been outplayed for long periods. Good times and bad times aren't simply down to luck, there are all kinds of things that cause them. Atitude is often on top of that list.
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39. Written by
This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
, on 20-03-2008 09:29
Respect to you Ted,
Although I am a "newbie" and have been following your site only recently I for sure know that it is not easy to make "miracolous" profits day in day out..Long term and patience is the key..and of course a little luck..
keep up the good work Ted and don-t let the buggers get you down..
roberto
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40. Written by ctc79, on 20-03-2008 08:30
Hey Ted,
don't let the haters get to u too much. I for one have enjoyed the insight in your previews often though I may not always agree.
Ultimately, my final bet lies with me and my decision is my own. I don't understand why some people cannot understand that. People that diss you do not always understand the reality of betting and money management.
Stay true. Peace.
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