Football is much more than two or three superstars in a team and much more than the players whose name everybody knows. Nobody cares about workhorses, at least they didn't until Real Madrid started losing when they had a great idea to play four offensive midfielders together. Workhorses and players who aren't stars are very important for the balance of the team, and it's also important how well do the players cooperate (e.g. left back with a left wing, playmaker with strikers, two central defenders with each other and the goalie). All those things should be studied when predicting an outcome of a football match. But there's another thing, or should I say, another guy who is very important for the outcome of the match as he links all the players. He's very important from a sport point of view, and equally important from a betting point of view. In betting, however, coaches are often not cared about at all.

And we should really care about the ones who are making the wrong decisions for their team. For example, Ottmar Hitzfeld. I can't say it's very wise to play two target men (Klose and Toni) in front of a great playmaker who, naturally, delivers great ground balls (Ribery). I might even say it's a very stupid thing to do. And we saw that against Getafe, there was a ton of high balls towards Klose and Toni, all coming from the middle of the field, and therefore, they were completely unusable. Target men need crosses from the wings, Ottmar! Also, a target man needs a "fox in the box" as a partner, not a clone of himself. If Ottmar was aware of this, Bayern would look much better.

Last Wednesday I witnessed another wrong decision, in Croatian Cup semifinals. Zagreb fielded a 3-5-2 formation against Dinamo and their powerful flanks set up in 4-4-2 formation. The result was plenty of panic in Zagreb's defense because a single pass towards the flank would create a dangerous opportunity. That happened roughly once every 2-3 minutes, and Dinamo ended up scoring three times. In that situation, how can you care which Dinamo's player is missing or are they in good form? Even an average player would take advantage of that situation, just like Getafe's players took advantage od Ottmar's wrong vision of his team. Okay, Getafe lost, but you saw the match, Bayern was powerless even though they had an extra player for 114 minutes. In these matches, the momentum was on Dinamo's and Getafe's side, because of coaches alone. Although Dinamo is playing worse and worse. Why? Because of the new coach.

Another very interesting thing is going on in the Croatian league. Zlatko Daliæ, a coach (so people say), had a streak of 10 games without a win while he was coaching Varteks and their average players. The Rijeka board decided they want to focus on their youth players so they wanted to hire a man who is famous (for some reason) for doing a good job with young players. That person is Daliæ. The Rijeka board eventually dropped the "youth" idea and they hired plenty of good players in their prime, success was eminent and every position on the field was adequately covered. Even now, when you look at Rijeka, you see some extraordinary players and good moves, but - they didn't win for 8 matches now. The last time they won we didn't even start to prepare for Christmas, it was December 8th 2007 and I was 26 years old. Now I'm 27 and Rijeka still can't win, it looks like I'll reach 28 without seeing Rijeka's players merrilly raise their arms. Unless Daliæ is fired before that time. And what about Varteks? Since Daliæ left, they're playing amazing football, and if the first 8 rounds (8 straight defeats) would be taken out of the equasion, Varteks would be right behind Dinamo, on the 2nd place in the league.

Inter Zaprešiæ is the same story as Rijeka, they have enough talent in their club to be able to safely stay in the league. But, they're relegation candidates because of a defensive coach. Let me say that again - players are offensive, coach is defensive. No wonder they can't win, coach Braèun wants playmakers to play defense and every Inter's offensive action consists of maximum of 3-4 players. The others don't go forward, they're not allowed to. I'll ask again - in that situation, what does it matter if Inter Zaprešiæ buys Miroslav Klose, for example? It wouldn't matter much because Klose is a target man and Inter's only chance of scoring is fast counter attacks. To add to the irony, Inter is playing 4-5-1 with a single striker. A target man, and let me tell you, he's not Speedy Gonzales. The irony goes even further, as Inter's only victory since December 8th 2007 was a home win against Rijeka, 2:1.

I think I can rest my case, the coaches and their decisions are very important and are disregarded way too often in betting. Many times, we wonder why we've lost a bet, and we think that there's some conspiracy against us, or an invisible hand taking away our winnings. Coaches are that invisible hand, and not caring about them is the same as not caring about generals during the war. Or not caring for a chess player and caring only about the figurines on the chess board. Don't even get me started on Slaven Biliæ and the absolutely amazing job he and his partners have done with the Croatian national team. That's a smart coach. Now, imagine a guy studying odds and statistics when choosing a bet on Danish 4th football league, not knowing who's the coach or how do the teams play. That doesn't work.

Dan Horvat, BrainBetting.com

Comments (6)

1. Written by Teddie21, on 17-04-2008 14:04 Their coach read your article, here's why Report

2. Written by This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it , on 16-04-2008 20:45 Rijeka won Report

4. Written by sadone, on 15-04-2008 01:12 Teddie wrote: "That's why stats and all that (censored) never work, you have to take into account all the factors that have an influence"    no offence mate, but i still think that you're forgetting that while betting...     dont you think that 2% yield after 504 picks is pretty awuful score? Report

5. Written by This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it , on 14-04-2008 17:10 thanks Report

6. Written by Teddie21, on 14-04-2008 10:01 Awsome article, I read it 3 times. That's why stats and all that (censored) never work, you have to take into account all the factors that have an influence, and studying coaches is a good step to start.    "The last time they won we didn't even start to prepare for Christmas, it was December 8th 2007 and I was 26 years old. Now I'm 27 and Rijeka still can't win" hilarious, great writing style Report

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