I was a big big mug when I had 13.00 on Roma to clinch the title (before the Siena match), and from a reason or another I hesitated, and odds dropped a lot afterwards normally. Frankly speaking Inter don't deserve to be champions this year. I'm not talking about some particular match, I'm talking about their perfomance this season as a whole, and it's a fact they were lucky more often than not. Let me remind you one lucky win...Inter against Parma in the first half of the season...The Milan based side were distinctly outplayed by Parma and have got in the end a 3-2 win after the've scored from a non-existent penalty and scored the winning goal when the visitors were obviously down mentally and collapsed afterwards. Those who remember the game will know what I'm talking about. I won't mention here a lot of other games they shouldn't have won, like at home against Reggina for instance.
 
So today they face the same Parma, and what's more interesting is that they can't afford to lose, they need to grab all the three points actually, can they do it? It's a big coincidence because Parma have got to win as well, and hope Catania struggles against Roma. And like I said I have the feeling Parma are exactly the kind of team who can put on troubles Inter. I was on Siena +2 last round, and  NO ONE thought they can withstand undefeated, and few I guess really believed they can cover the spread. So easy. It's the result of my theories about Inter. I've noticed a BIG slump in their play for several months already, and it's been reflected by the Siena match, why can't Parma follow the trend? Andrea Manzo is the new Parma coach as Hector Cuper's left the club. Of course he hasn't got any time in order to train his players normally but usually the coach changing is a poitive factor, so let's just hope it's going to be our case.
 
Have a feeling for months that Inter are not gonna take any title this year. Really believe Parma can cause an upset, and that Roma will beat Catania in the end, don't like Roma's offer though it's too tight for a line like that, nevertheless they smell like campioni d'Italia!
 
Parma (+1) at 2.02 with 188bet, stake 8
 
Empoli can only aim a victory when they play already relegated Livorno today. Should they grab the three points there's no guarantee though they'll stay in Serie A as they have to hope Catania fails to pick up at home, and Parma doesn't win. Normally this is a -0.5:+0.5 match, but Empoli having the added motivation on their side should be keeping higher chances, nevertheless I think the line is completely exaggerated even for Livorno who've never been great this season.
 
Empoli are a decent side in my view, ther recent improved football has proved their worth and I'd feel sorry to see them relegated, however there's a problem today as they are rather used to play as underdogs, their best results have come from this kind of tactic, whilst against Livorno they'll have to play possesionaly and I don't quite see them very potent up front. The bookies cleary exaggerate the motivational advantage/disadvantage, especially that we're talking about Italian football and like usually they do all they can and turn things around to their advantage.
 
Livorno (+1.5) at 1.90 with Pinnacle, stake 8
 
"We are used to speaking little. We remain silent and look to let our results do the talking. This is the philosophy of Udinese. "It is always nice to win even when just playing with friends so even more so at the San Siro against Milan. "The confrontation at the San Siro is stimulating. The Rossoneri will be really motivated and will look to seize fourth place,'' Udinese's Andrea Dossena said. No comment from my side, the Bianconeri won't give it up easy that's for sure.

Talking about potential and form I've got to come with the Napoli v Milan match from a week ago when the Rossoneri have got an unbelievable -1.5 and it's all ended in a shameful defeat that pared any real chance to make it in CL next season. That's not Milan I know, Kaka is maybe their only influential player that really does something, but he's useless if not sustained. And Udinese play the best football when they have to defend, it's a tradition to play defesnive-minded football on the road and hit on counters, they've been doing it all the season long, don't see any reason why they wouldn't do it again. The spread is way of the mark whatsoever, Udinese are not Catania/Cagliari/Livorno etc etc, and have a wise tactic that suits so well in matches like these.

Udinese (+1.5) at 2.00 with Mansion88, stake 8

1 PICK WON

2 PICKS LOST

-8.8