Wimbledon: Day 3 -6.68 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Grzegorz   
Wednesday, 25 June 2008

marat_safin.jpg Marat Safin - Novak Djokovic

Marat Safin is of course player, who has one of the biggest potential ever in whole ATP tour and he's an unique guy, who is always dangerous in Grand Slams, indepedently of his form. He wasn't too good in Queens Club, where he reached only second round, also he rather doesn't like grass, but against top player he's always so motivated and I'm sure he won't give up too easy. He destroyed Djokovic in Australian Open in 2005 (60 62 61) in rather humiliating way, so it can be an important factor for this crazy player. Marat had no problems with Fabio Fognini (61 62 76), so he ought to be confident, he has nothing to lose in this game.

Novak Djokovic is one of the favourites in here, but still like in most tournaments he has slow start and I expect the same in here, especially after really mediocre first game against Michael Berrer (75 26 63 60). He has still problems with concentration and I believe that Safin is able to win at least one set. Serb was in great form lately, there's no doubt, but in here will meet two outstanding players and I expect quite tight game. I believe that 64 64 64 outcome for Djokovic is probable, so +7 games handicap on Marat with @ 1.93 at Pinnacle must be my main choice in here.

4 units* Marat Safin +7 games @ 1.93 at Pinnacle

 

Juan Martin Del Potro - Stanislas Wawrinka

Juan Martin Del Potro has all weapons to be a great grasscourter and as he's still really young and so talented, I'm sure he'll try to take advantage of it, playing some serve and volley plays, despite being Argie. He was really impressive in s'Hertogenbosch, reaching semi final, winning with Fabrice Santoro (63 61), Rainer Schuettler (76 43 ret.) and Arnaud Clement (26 63 61), he played also very good in here, against Pavel Snobel (64 62 63), without any problems. I can say that he's more consistent than rival on grass and he should be at least small favourite.

Stanislas Wawrinka is already a world class player, but still he said that he doesn't like grass and his 3-8 record on it proves it as well. He has easy first round against claycourter Marcos Daniel (63 62 75), but in here he'll have a really tough job. I doubt Stan could be stable on serve against Del Potro, also it'll be hard to break such server like Argie, so value with @ 2.40 at Victor Chandler is huge, even tough Swiss is 1-0 in h2h.

4 units* Juan Martin Del Potro @ 2.40 at Victor Chandler

 

Thomaz Bellucci - Simon Stadler

Thomaz Bellucci has amazing season so far with 39-13 record and couple of titles and great winnings, so it's insane to making him an underdog against such mediocre opponents like Stadler. Young Brasilean has already reached his best ranking - no. 67 and it looks like he's potential to Top 50 in this year, even tough rest of the season will be on hardcourts and Thomaz is natural claycourter. Fortunately he's a type of player who has no problems in other surfaces and in near future he must be a solid all rounder. He has all potential to be solid grasscourter, with his strong serve and 187 cm, so even tough no experience on grass, I can trust him without any doubts.

Simon Stadler has become great grasscourter after one win, against Ivo Karlovic (46 76 63 75), who is poor in every Grand Slams and it wasn't such big defeat as Simon hasn't play something impressive, just run and hit the ball. Bookmakers made one of the biggest mistakes in here so far, rating a mediocre player (no. 172), a favourite in second round of Wimbledon! Stadler is better than Bellucci in only one aspect - experience on surface, but in all other he's class below, so @ 2.25 on Thomaz at Ladbrokes must be definetely my choice today.

4 units* Thomaz Bellucci @ 2.25 at Ladbrokes

 

Frank Dancevic - Bobby Reynolds & Juan Carlos Ferrero - Mischa Zverev

Frank Dancevic is typical player for grass and there's no doubt, he proved it in first round against David Nalbandian (64 62 64), when he has been playing brilliant tennis against one of the best players in ATP tour. He has big serve, stable baseline play so I can't see him losing against such opponent. Bobby Reynolds was amazing player, while playing against Filippo Volandri (62 62 ret.), but against Dancevic, he's only poor challenger player, who has no weapons to reach third round of Wimbledon. @ 1.40 odd is definetely too high on talented Frank.

Juan Carlos Ferrero like I wrote in previous prievew, 'is extremely experienced with great technique and movement, so I must trust him in here, especially that he isn't typical Spaniard, who can't play on fast surfaces; former number one in the world must be all rounder. Of course he hasn't been playing on grass this year so far because he had an injury, but at the moment it's ok with him and he ought to play with 100% effort, which is to be enough for such opponent. Most people think JCF can't be competitive in here, but in last year he was amazing, reaching quarter final, winning with James Blake (36 63 63 76) or Janko Tipsarevic (75 63 76). He even stole a set from Roger Federer (76 36 16 36), so why anyone could say that he can't be grasscourter? I don't know but for me Ferrero is more than claycourter, he's brilliant player, with excellent skills'. It's all true, despite he had slow start in first set against Sam Querrey (26 64 64 64), but it's normal after longer injury. Mischa Zverev can't be a serious opponent for him because he has only big serve and nothing more, having no weapons against such player like Ferrero. It's a banker for me, so @ 1.36 is great material for combo.

4 units* Frank Dancevic (@ 1.40) + Juan Carlos Ferrero (@ 1.36) @ 1.91 at Blue Square

 

Marcos Baghdatis - Thomas Johansson & Feliciano Lopez - Roko Karanusic & Fernando Gonzalez - Simone Bolelli

All three players are one class above opponents and even tough really short odds, overal @ 1.91 is acceptable for me, because I can't see any upsets in here. Baghdatis is maybe after long injury but it looks like he's back with strong form, having great grass play, so old Johansson, who had five setter in first round, can't cope with Marcos in here. Baghdatis has many points to hold in Wimbledon, so motivation must be huge for him.

Also Lopez is typical grasscourter and even tough he has been struggling in first round against poor opponent, he must take advantage of such lucky draw and win this second round, against average Roko Karanusic, who has no weapons in here at all. Gonzalez is also solid on grass, being world class all rounder, so against pathetic on this surface Bolelli, who can be impressive only on clay, it's impossiblem for me, seeing a loss for Chilean.  

4 units* Marcos Baghdatis (@ 1.17) + Feliciano Lopez (@ 1.36) + Fernando Gonzalez (@ 1.20) @ 1.91 at 5Dimes 

1 PICK PASRTIALLY WON

1 PICK WON

3 PICKS LOST

-6.68

Last Updated ( Monday, 30 June 2008 )
 
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